I confess: I can't do statistics--and that's what my prof wanted for this project!

Summary of “Service Changes in a Central-Place System”
Most studies on rural service provision have focused on one period of time and within the context of rural depopulation, ignoring functional complexity and possible relationships between service provision and rural development policy. Though waning, the relationship between rural areas and the towns which provide their services is important for understanding rural life and economic policies intended to protect it. This 1986 study by Hourihan and Lyons analyzes the evolution of the functional complexity of rural service provision within a stable population, and amid governmental policies designed to maintain that population and its areal distribution.
Technology shifts, increased specialization, and economic rationalization lead to declines in established services, while new technologies, increased affluence, and changing consumer tastes gave rise to new services. Increased mobility correlated to a greater range of travel, during which goods may be purchased, and combined with multi-purpose shopping, is associated with the demise of intermediate levels of the service provision hierarchy.
When Ireland joined the European Union in 1973, it had to adopt EU policies that subsidized rural/agricultural populations, significantly raising farm-family incomes and standards of living. The Irish national government also created economic policies specifically designed to attract multi-national firms to small towns and villages, providing new sources of income to the rural/agricultural populations. This resulted in rising population levels, rapid economic growth, greater affluence, and the emergence of a more sophisticated consumer market.
The original study of County Tipperary conducted by O’Farrell in 1966 classified 143 central places, all of which were revisited for the 1986 study. No new central places were revealed in the latter. Both studies recorded every functional unit provided by service establishments, recording the number and spatial distribution of the outlets, and thus, is an indication of the direction of change over time.
O’Farrell’s original list of 43 services was retained, along with his still valid four-tier hierarchy, though a number of new services were identified and added. All 143 central places in the O’Farrell study still were active during the 1986 study period, and the range of services remained relatively stable, although the total number of functional units decreased by 13.9%, mostly due to a decline in the number of grocery outlets. In general, lower-order services contracted and higher-order services expanded. The differences between the two study periods reflect changes in the economic and social organization of Irish society: larger-scale operations, changing technologies, rising affluence, and changing consumer tastes.
To examine these changes, the 1966 services were categorized as contracting, expanding or relocating.
♣ 15 services declined; for 7 of these functions, proportional losses were heaviest at the village (intermediate) level, 4 in major towns (highest level), 3 in minor towns (2nd highest level), and 1 at the hamlet (lowest) level.
♣ 17 services expanded, 13 concentrated at the town levels, and 4 at the village level, reflecting the services’ higher order, and their consequent requirement of larger markets.
♣ 8 services relocated, half moving up, half down the order.
This indicates a broad pattern of service provision migrating from the village level to that of the major town. Between 1966 and 1986, 23 of the 41 services measured became less concentrated at any one level, 13 more so, and 5 did not change.
Specialization in functions was most common at the lower levels of the hierarchy, a decrease in their overall availability. Increasing functions suggested wider availability. Functions that decreased due to economic rationalization showed no significant change in concentration.
Of the new services that emerged, less than 10% of their functional units occurred in villages and hamlets, a figure in keeping with the rising affluence and cosmopolitanism during the study period.

Three major conclusions were drawn:
1. Overall, services remained relatively stable
2. Decreases in service provision occurred at the village level; increases at the major town level
3. New services emerged as two broad groups: leisure-hobby and business-personal

The stability of the overall Central-Place system is the result of rising affluence and increased consumer demand of the sustained rural population base—suggesting that the EU and Irish national government policies were effective. However, their costly implementation may have contributed to problems within the national economy—recession, unemployment, and rising emigration.
The decline in service availability can be explained by the increased mobility of rural residents: Commuting from village to town for work drew villagers to the markets of the larger towns. Thus demand at the village level waned, reducing the number of customers to below the minimum threshold. However, this trend was somewhat mitigated by the farm-families’ propensity to patronize local establishments. Perhaps more a social function than a purely economic one, this suggests that policy should be aimed at supporting farm-families rather than rural industrialization.
A second unintended consequence of rural development policy—and its effectiveness—is new consumer demand. As rural affluence rose, demand for new and better services increased. These were satisfied at the town level, where access to larger potential markets reduced economic risk for the service provider, and which accommodated the larger minimum threshold required by new services. Also, economies of scale can be generated at the town level, undermining the economic competitiveness of the village-level providers.
Yet, increased demand draws higher-order services to the lower-levels in the hierarchy (e.g., gas stations became more diffused), and may do the same for new services such as video rentals. This trend may act to stabilize the economic viability of the village level. Of course, these policies marginalize non-commuters such as the poor or the elderly, who must pay higher prices for the remaining services, or do without.
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